Methanex (MX) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved best two-year safety performance in company history by year-end 2025, with zero Tier 1 process safety incidents and recordable injury rates well below industry average.

• Fourth quarter 2025 saw higher methanol production and sales, reaching 2,364,000 tonnes, but lower average realized prices and immediate fixed cost recognition from plant outages led to lower Adjusted EBITDA and a net loss.

• Integration of newly acquired OCI/Texas assets progressed well, contributing to increased production and sales volumes, with production rates exceeding acquisition assumptions.

• Net loss attributable to shareholders was $89 million in Q4 2025, mainly due to an $82 million non-cash impairment in New Zealand.

• Full-year 2025 net income attributable to shareholders was $80 million, with Adjusted EBITDA of $808 million and operating cash flows of $1,016 million.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenue was $969 million, with Adjusted EBITDA of $186 million and Adjusted net loss of $11 million.

• Q4 2025 average realized price was $331/ton, with produced sales of ~2.4 million tons.

• Q4 2025 sales volume (excluding commission sales) increased by 153,000 tonnes sequentially and 166,000 tonnes year-over-year.

• Ended 2025 with $425 million in cash after repaying $75 million of Term Loan A; an additional $50 million repaid in early 2026, reducing the loan balance to $300 million.

• Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA rose to $808 million from $764 million in 2024, while net income declined to $80 million from $164 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2026 average realized price expected between $330 and $340/ton, with slightly higher Adjusted EBITDA than Q4 2025.

• Equity production guidance for 2026 is approximately 9 million tons of methanol and 0.3 million tons of ammonia, with regional breakdowns provided.

• All free cash flow in the near term prioritized for Term Loan A repayment.