Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record full-year free cash flow of $461.2M, up 27% year-over-year, and record production of 131,800 BOE/d in Q4 2024, up 15% year-over-year, despite disruptions from weather, refinery outages, and operational delays.

• Oil volumes grew 25% year-over-year in 2024, with high single-digit growth expected in 2025 and a strong exit rate anticipated.

• The business remains positioned for long-term growth with a diversified non-operated model and expanded JV opportunities, including a $40M Upton County, TX acquisition and a 2025 Appalachian drilling partnership.

• Shareholder returns prioritized, with ~$260M returned in 2024 via buybacks and dividends, and a 12.5% YoY dividend increase for Q1 2025.

• Infrastructure and internal capabilities are being expanded to support future scaling and value extraction from existing and new assets.

Financial highlights

• Q4 average daily production was 131,800 BOE/d; full-year average was 124,100 BOE/d, both above guidance.

• Q4 oil production rose 11% sequentially to 78,900 bbl/d, driven by acquisitions and Permian strength.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $407M; free cash flow was $96M. Full-year adjusted EBITDA reached $1.6B and free cash flow $461M, both record highs.

• CapEx in Q4 totaled $259M, with 51%–66% allocated to the Permian. Liquidity at year-end exceeded $800M.

• Total oil & gas revenues for 2024: $2.24B; operating margin: 70.1%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 production is guided at 130,000–135,000 BOE/d, with oil at 75,000–79,000 bbl/d.

• CapEx budget for 2025 is $1.05B–$1.2B, including recent acquisitions and partnerships, with 66% allocated to the Permian.

• Production profile is expected to be flat through most of 2025, ramping significantly in the back half, with double-digit growth potential for 2026.

• Proved reserves grew 11% year-over-year to 378.5 million BOE.

• Operating expense guidance: $9.15–$9.40/Boe; production taxes 8.5%–9.0% of sales.