Nutrien (NTR) Bank of America 2025 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference summary

Macroeconomic and industry outlook

• Global crop nutrient consumption is rising, with strong demand in China, India, Brazil, and North America, driven by food security and tight grain stocks-to-use ratios.

• Record fertilizer consumption in Brazil is expected to grow further, while North American farmers show optimism due to strengthening corn prices and tight inventories.

• Tight global grain stocks and weather volatility are influencing commodity prices and farmer sentiment.

• Balanced fertilization and proprietary product growth are key strategies for maximizing yields and supporting business growth.

• The company is cautiously optimistic for 2025, expecting favorable market conditions and expanded corn acreage.

Strategic investments and capital allocation

• Growth CapEx has been reduced by half, now focused on high-conviction opportunities such as mining automation and nitrogen complex upgrades.

• Targeted investments aim to add 2-3 million tons of fertilizer production by 2026, with clear volume growth visibility.

• Downstream business growth is driven by proprietary products and network optimization, supporting a $1.9-$2.1 billion EBITDA target for 2025.

• Capital deployment in Brazil continues despite market challenges, with ongoing improvements in business performance.

• Growth strategy is highly selective, focusing on core strengths in serving farmers and fertilizer production.

Retail and downstream business expansion

• Bolt-on acquisitions, such as Van Horn in Illinois, have doubled profitability and provided immediate synergies, especially in proprietary products.

• Acquisitions bring both operational synergies and best practices, enhancing efficiency and seed market share across the network.

• U.S. retail market share is in the low 20s%, with ambitions to reach 30% through organic growth and targeted acquisitions, especially in the Corn Belt.

• Proprietary products, particularly biologicals and nutritionals, are expected to drive 70% of growth in the next five years.

• New products like Infinity, a nitrogen efficiency product, are being rapidly introduced, supported by extensive field trials and strong yield results.