Nutrien (NTR) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved $4.3 billion adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024, with Retail, Potash, and Nitrogen segments contributing $1.4 billion, $1.6 billion, and $1.4 billion, respectively; net earnings for the period were $582 million.

• Record Potash sales volumes and lower operating costs offset lower benchmark prices, while Retail margins improved in North America despite headwinds in Brazil.

• Achieved $200 million in annual operational efficiency and cost savings ahead of the 2026 target, now expected by 2025.

• 1.5 million shares repurchased for $75 million since late September, with continued buybacks planned.

• Strategic focus on cost savings, capital allocation, fertilizer sales growth, and downstream Retail expansion.

Financial highlights

• Nine-month sales were $20.89 billion (down 11% year-over-year); adjusted EBITDA was $4.3 billion (down 14%).

• Retail adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to $1.4 billion, with gross margin per tonne up 12% year-over-year; Potash adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 billion, down 20% due to lower prices but with record sales volumes of 11.1 million tonnes.

• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 billion, down 8% year-over-year as lower prices offset higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs.

• Q3 2024 net earnings were $25 million, down 70% year-over-year; Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $1.01 billion, down 7%.

• Cash from operations for the nine months was $412 million, down from $916 million year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2024 guidance: Retail adjusted EBITDA $1.5–$1.6 billion, Potash sales volumes 13.5–13.9 million tonnes, Nitrogen sales volumes 10.6–10.8 million tonnes, Phosphate sales volumes 2.4–2.5 million tonnes.

• Potash sales volume guidance raised due to strong global demand; nitrogen and phosphate guidance lowered due to outages and weather impacts.

• CapEx expected at $2.2–$2.3 billion in 2024, reducing to $2.0–$2.1 billion in 2025.

• Effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings guided at 21.5–22.5% for 2024, lowered due to geographic earnings mix.

• Targeting 11.5–12 million tonnes nitrogen sales by 2026.