Origin Energy (ORG) H1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit for HY25 rose to $1,017 million, up from $995 million year-over-year, with underlying profit at $924 million, up from $747 million, driven by Integrated Gas and lower tax expense.

• Energy Markets earnings declined as expected, offset by a 14% increase in APLNG earnings due to higher realized prices and sales volumes.

• LNG trading delivered underlying EBITDA of $285 million, up 270% year-over-year, trending toward the upper end of FY25 guidance.

• Octopus UK retail saw strong growth, but overall EBITDA was a $24 million loss due to investment in scaling energy services; Kraken platform reached 62 million contracted accounts globally.

• Interim dividend increased to 30 cps, fully franked, up from 27.5 cps in HY24, reflecting strong cash flows and balance sheet.

Financial highlights

• Underlying EBITDA was $1,926 million, down from $1,995 million year-over-year.

• Adjusted net debt/EBITDA increased to 1.5x from 1.0x at June 2024, remaining below the 2–3x target range.

• Free cash flow was a net outflow of $552 million, reflecting increased capex on battery investments.

• APLNG paid $612 million in fully franked dividends, with strong JV operating cash flow of $3.2 billion.

• Earnings per share: statutory 59.1c, underlying 53.7c, both up year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 Energy Markets underlying EBITDA guidance unchanged at $1,100–$1,400 million.

• LNG trading EBITDA expected at the upper end of $400–$450 million for FY25, with a sharp drop expected in FY26.

• Octopus Energy FY25 EBITDA contribution revised to up to $100 million, reflecting continued investment in Energy Services.

• APLNG FY25 production guidance revised to 670–690 PJ, with capex/opex expected at $2.7–$2.9 billion.

• FY25 capex forecast at $1.5–$1.7 billion, with $950 million to $1.3 billion for battery projects.