Origin Energy (ORG) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit rose to $1,481 million, up from $1,397 million in FY24, with underlying profit at $1,490 million, mainly due to lower income tax expense and fully franked dividends from APLNG.

• Energy Markets EBITDA reached $1,404 million, exceeding guidance, driven by strong trading gains, operational performance, and customer growth of 104,000 accounts.

• APLNG delivered $797 million in dividends, with production at 682 PJ and LNG trading gains of $441 million, all in line with guidance.

• Octopus Energy grew rapidly, with UK customers up 13% and non-UK accounts doubling, though EBITDA loss of $88 million was within guidance due to growth investments and one-off impacts.

• Fully franked final dividend of 30cps declared, totaling 60cps for FY25, up from 55cps in FY24.

Financial highlights

• Underlying profit increased by $307 million year-over-year, reaching $1,490 million, while underlying EBITDA was $3,411 million, down from $3,528 million in FY24.

• Adjusted net debt/EBITDA rose to 1.9x from 1.0x, reflecting growth investments.

• Free cash flow was impacted by major growth capex, with $927 million spent on batteries and $258 million on generation sustain.

• Dividend payout ratio reached 86%, with dividends up 21% year-over-year and a 5.1% yield before franking.

• Capital employed increased 13% to $17,410 million.

Outlook and guidance

• FY26 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance: $1,400–$1,700 million, with cost to serve savings targeted at $100–$150 million by FY26 vs FY24.

• LNG Trading EBITDA guidance: $100–$150 million; Octopus Energy EBITDA: $0–$150 million.

• CapEx guidance (excluding acquisitions): $800–$1,100 million, mainly for battery projects.

• APLNG production guidance: 635–680 PJ; all-in costs: $2.9–$3.2 billion.

• Dividend policy aims for stability, with potential for modest growth.