Repsol (REP) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 adjusted income was €651 million, down 49% year-over-year, with net income at €366 million, a 62% decrease, mainly due to lower refining margins and oil prices, partially offset by higher gas prices and portfolio improvements.

• Net debt increased to €5.8 billion, up €0.8 billion since December, driven by investments, working capital, shareholder remuneration, and bond transactions; gearing at 16.9% (5.9% ex-leases).

• The integrated business model showed resilience amid market volatility, with strategic progress in a UK North Sea JV, renewables asset rotations in Spain and the US, and new project start-ups.

• Shareholder remuneration commitments maintained, with €0.975/share dividend for 2025 (+8.3% y-o-y), €0.5/share proposed for July 2025 and January 2026, and ongoing share buyback program.

• Portfolio transformation included €0.7 billion in divestments and strategic partnerships in renewables and industrial assets.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted income for Q1 2025 was €651 million, up 1% from Q4 2024 but down 49% year-over-year; net income was €366 million.

• EBITDA was €1,587 million, down 25.9% year-over-year; EBITDA CCS at €1,847 million.

• Cash flow from operations was €1.1 billion, impacted by seasonal working capital; free cash flow reached €88 million, a significant improvement from negative €767 million in Q1 2024.

• Net capex for the quarter was €1.0 billion, the lowest since Q1 2023; €0.7 billion in divestments announced, €0.4 billion already received.

• Brent crude averaged $75.7/bbl (down 9% y-o-y); Henry Hub gas $3.7/MMBtu (up 60.9% y-o-y); refining margin indicator at $5.3/bbl.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance remains unchanged under original macro assumptions, including shareholder remuneration objectives and upstream production of 530–550 kboe/d.

• In a stress scenario ($65 Brent, $3.5 Henry Hub, $4 refining margin), projected cash flow from operations is €5.5–6 billion; net capex expected at €3–3.5 billion, including ~€2 billion from divestments/rotations.

• Shareholder remuneration to remain at 30–35% of cash flow from operations, with guidance confirmed even under stressed scenarios.