Schneider National (SNDR) Morgan Stanley‘s 12th Annual Laguna Conference 2024 summary

Market trends and seasonality

• Return to normal seasonality observed since June, with trends similar to 2019 rather than recent years of disruption.

• No significant market inflection yet; seasonal patterns are present but not strong.

• Customers' peak season plans and restocking are following typical timelines, with no evidence of major pull-forward due to external events.

• Early signs of tighter connection between port activity and domestic intermodal volumes emerged in June and July.

Supply, pricing, and customer behavior

• Truckload supply attrition is slow, with many smaller carriers under financial strain and unable to scale up when the market turns.

• Customers are aware of potential supply constraints and are shifting more business to asset-based carriers.

• Bid season for 2025 is underway, with customers closely watching the gap between spot and contract rates.

• Opportunities are increasing for asset-based carriers as customers seek reliability amid market uncertainty.

Business mix and growth strategy

• Dedicated business now comprises two-thirds of the mix, up from one-third at IPO, with continued focus on profitable growth.

• Growth in dedicated is driven by both organic expansion and acquisitions, with recent deals enhancing capabilities in automotive and retail.

• No fixed target for business mix; investment decisions are return-based and flexible to market shifts.

• Dedicated remains attractive for customers seeking high service levels and supply chain responsiveness.