SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Entered a definitive agreement for acquisition by GFL at $24.75/share, a 23% premium to 60-day VWAP, implying a $6.4B enterprise value; shareholders can elect cash, GFL shares, or a mix, with 80% equity and 20% cash consideration.

• Board and special committee unanimously recommend the transaction, with significant support already secured from major shareholders and directors; special shareholder meeting scheduled for May 27, 2026.

• Transaction expected to close in H2 2026, delivering immediate value and future upside via equity in the combined company.

• Combined entity will be a scaled, diversified waste management platform with enhanced growth and financial profile.

• Transaction reduces execution risk, enables value crystallization, and aligns with a proven management team.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reached $137 million, up 13% year-over-year and 21% per share, with revenue at $383 million and a 36% EBITDA margin.

• Adjusted EBITDA per share grew at 8% CAGR from 2022–2025; 2026e Adjusted EBITDA projected at ~$550M.

• Discretionary Free Cash Flow (DFCF) conversion above 50% of EBITDA; Q1 2026 DFCF was $88 million, up 31% year-over-year.

• Dividend increased by 5% to $0.105 per share quarterly; nearly 1 million shares repurchased at an average price of just over $17.

• Total Debt to Adjusted EBITDA at 2.3x (2.0x ex-leases) at quarter-end; 2025 year-end at 2.1x (1.8x ex-leases).

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 results expected to trend toward the high end of Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($520–$550 million), with growth capital increased to $100 million to accelerate infrastructure projects.

• Organic revenue CAGR of ~7% since 2022, driven by stable, recurring waste streams and disciplined pricing.

• Volume growth expected to track 3% annually, in line with Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin production forecasts.

• High single-digit compound annual growth profile anticipated, with upside from disciplined M&A.

• Visible growth plan for 2026 includes $100M in incremental produced water disposal and processing enhancements.