SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered solid Q2 2025 results, with core operations focused on waste collection, processing, recycling, and disposal, supported by a strong infrastructure network in Western Canada and North Dakota.

• Business transformation over the past decade has shifted to 80% recurring/production cash flows and 90% infrastructure focus, with integrated business units providing critical solutions.

• Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA reached $110 million ($0.49/share), with a 14% per-share increase year-over-year, driven by share buybacks and steady core infrastructure performance.

• Maintained 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $510–$540 million, supported by organic growth projects, stable industrial fundamentals, and higher volumes.

• Returned $286 million to shareholders YTD via dividends and share repurchases, including a $137 million substantial issuer bid and $104 million under NCIB, repurchasing 7% of shares.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $110 million ($0.49/share), up 14% per share year-over-year, but down 4% in absolute terms due to seasonality and metals market volatility.

• Revenue (excluding purchase/resale) was $353 million, up 5% from Q2 2024, driven by steady core volumes, pricing increases, and the Edmonton Metals acquisition.

• Net income was $31 million ($0.14/share), up 17% per share year-over-year, with share buybacks reducing shares outstanding by 15%.

• Discretionary free cash flow was $54 million, up 20% per share year-over-year.

• Market capitalization of $3.7B and enterprise value of $4.5B as of June 30, 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $510–$540 million, with Q4 expected to be the strongest quarter due to metals market recovery and new project contributions.

• Discretionary free cash flow projected at $270–$300 million for 2025.

• Growth capital budget of $125 million and sustaining capital of $85 million for the year, with over 70% allocated to long-cycle, contracted infrastructure investments.

• Canadian crude oil supply expected to grow 2.5% annually to 2030, supporting production volumes.

• Anticipates robust EBITDA and volume growth into 2026, supported by organic projects and strong customer demand in Montney and Northeast BC.