SEB (SEB) Pre-Close Call summary

Executive summary

• Macro environment impacted by lower Swedish policy rates and a marginally stronger SEK versus EUR and USD, affecting lending, deposit rates, and FX-sensitive P&L lines.

• Net interest income (NII) increased slightly at group level despite downward trending rates, with business and retail banking NII declining and Baltic NII stable due to offsetting volume growth.

• Cost target for 2025 set at SEK 33 billion, with potential for accelerated AirPlus implementation and some expected cost effects in Q4.

• Share buyback program of SEK 2.5 billion to conclude by January 27, 2026, with capital planning based on a 290 basis point management buffer.

• Dividend policy targets a payout ratio of around 50%, with special dividends only when capital buffers are well above target.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• NII at group level increased slightly, supported by higher day count, positive FX effects, and lower short-term funding costs.

• Business and retail banking NII declined by SEK 100 million due to lower deposit margins; mortgage margins stable.

• Baltic NII unchanged as lower rates were offset by higher lending and deposit volumes.

• Net fee and commission income correlated to stock market performance, with marginally positive impact expected for Q4.

• Advisory and securities-related fees seasonally softer in Q4, with no major transactions.

Profitability and margins

• Net financial income guidance based on 16-quarter average due to unpredictability; recent volatility muted, especially in FX.

• Net other income not specifically guided; some analysts include several hundred million SEK for Q4.

• Net expected credit losses reported at three basis points in Q3, with SEK 100 million extra in portfolio overlays.

• Imposed levies, including Riksbank's interest-free deposits, guided at SEK 3.6 billion.

• Tax rate proxy for forecasting set at 21%.