SEB (SEB) Pre-Close Call summary

Executive summary

• Policy rate cuts by the Swedish central bank and ECB led to changes in lending and deposit rates, impacting both Swedish and Baltic operations.

• FX movements, particularly a stronger SEK, resulted in lower income and costs, with a small net effect on risk exposure amount.

• Share buyback program of SEK 2.5 billion is expected to conclude by July 14, 2025, with a total approval of SEK 10 billion until January 2026.

• Silent period begins July 1, with the Q1 2025 interim report to be published on July 16.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Net interest income (NII) in Q2 is negatively impacted by fewer days, a stronger SEK, and lower deposit margins, with declines of around SEK 300 million in both business/retail and Baltic divisions.

• Fixed income NII tailwind seen in Q1 is expected to abate in Q2, with markets NII providing some offset.

• Net fee and commission income is expected to be negatively affected by lower average asset values and a wait-and-see market stance.

• Net financial income guidance remains at the 16-quarter average of SEK 2.4 billion per quarter.

Profitability and margins

• Operating expenses target for 2025 remains at or below SEK 33 billion, plus/minus SEK 300 million, based on 2024 average FX rates.

• Share price has remained flat, so no significant cost impact is expected from share-based compensation.

• Imposed levies for 2025 are expected to total SEK 3.4 billion, with a higher first half.

• Tax rate guidance remains at 21% for forecasting purposes.