TC Energy (TRP) Investor Day 2024 summary

Strategic priorities and business transformation

• Transitioned to a focused natural gas and power company, emphasizing high-value, low-risk, and repeatable performance, with disciplined $6–$7 billion annual capital spending and a strong focus on safety and operational excellence.

• Completed the spinoff of the liquids pipelines business and South Bow, aligning the portfolio to natural gas and power, and integrated gas businesses for efficiency and risk reduction.

• Achieved major milestones including Coastal GasLink mechanical completion, a commercial agreement with LNG Canada, and a $199 million one-time payment.

• Realized $2.5 billion in capital expenditure reductions from 2024–2027 and executed $7 billion in asset divestitures while retaining strategic assets.

• Unique North American footprint connects critical growth markets in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, with nuclear power providing non-emitting diversification.

Market outlook and growth opportunities

• North American natural gas and power demand is expected to grow strongly, with LNG export capacity projected to triple by 2035 and demand reaching ~160 Bcf/d.

• Company assets deliver 30% of North American LNG export feed gas and are positioned to capture nearly 23 BCF/d of the 40 BCF/d demand growth by 2035.

• Data center and coal-to-gas conversion projects, as well as storage expansions, are key drivers of future growth.

• Portfolio is 90% natural gas and 10% power (7% nuclear), with 97% of cash flows from rate-regulated or take-or-pay contracts, supporting 24 years of dividend growth.

• Portfolio highly aligned to long-term energy transition fundamentals, supporting electrification and decarbonization.

Capital allocation and financial guidance

• Annual net capital spending is capped at $6–$7 billion, with $2–$2.5 billion for maintenance, $1 billion for Bruce Power, and $3–$4 billion for discretionary high-return projects.

• Enhanced capital allocation process prioritizes risk sharing, cost recovery, and policy alignment across three countries.

• No new equity issuance planned; $31 billion funding over three years to be covered by $24 billion cash flow and $7 billion from capital markets.

• 2025 EBITDA guidance is $10.7–$10.9 billion (8% growth), with 5–7% annual growth targeted through 2027 and a $11.7–$11.9 billion EBITDA target.

• Managing to an upper limit of 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA, with leverage expected to decline from 5.4x in 2022 to 4.75x in 2024E.