TC Energy (TRP) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved best safety performance in five or six years, enabling multiple new delivery and flow records and robust operational reliability across North America.

• Fourth quarter comparable EBITDA rose 13–14% year-over-year to nearly $3.1 billion, capping a year of strong operational and financial performance.

• Placed CAD 8.3 billion of projects into service in 2025, 15% under budget, and delivered net capital expenditures of $5.3 billion, about 8% below the expected range midpoint.

• Replaced nearly all EBITDA from the spun-off liquids business with high-quality natural gas and power projects within 18 months.

• S&P affirmed BBB+ rating and revised outlook to stable, with a year-end debt-to-EBITDA of 4.8x, on track for a long-term target of 4.75x.

Financial highlights

• Q4 comparable EBITDA increased 13–14% year-over-year, reaching nearly $3.1 billion, with strong natural gas performance.

• Full-year comparable EBITDA from continuing operations was $11.0–$11.5 billion, up from $10.05 billion in 2024.

• U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines set a new delivery record, with daily average flows up 9.5% and comparable EBITDA up 16% year-over-year.

• Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines comparable EBITDA surged 70% year-over-year, mainly from Southeast Gateway pipeline completion.

• Power and Energy Solutions saw a 36% decline in comparable EBITDA, primarily due to Bruce Power outages.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 comparable EBITDA projected at $11.6–$12.0 billion, with a long-term sustainable dividend growth outlook of 3–5%.

• Annual net capital expenditures targeted at $5.5–$6.0 billion through 2030, with build multiples in the 5–7x range.

• Anticipates North American natural gas demand to rise by 45 Bcf/d by 2035, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and data center growth.

• High-conviction pending approval portfolio at CAD 8 billion, with an additional CAD 12 billion in origination.

• Dividend per share expected to increase from $3.40 in 2025 to $3.51 in 2026, with a current yield of 4.2%.