TC Energy (TRP) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 13% year-over-year growth in comparable EBITDA for Q4 2025, capping a year of strong operational and financial performance, with the best annual safety record in five years and 15 new flow records.

• Placed CAD 8.3 billion ($8.3 billion) of projects into service in 2025, 15% under budget, and advanced an additional $5 billion of projects at various stages.

• Replaced nearly all EBITDA from the spun-off liquids business with high-quality natural gas and power projects within 18 months.

• S&P affirmed BBB+ rating and revised outlook to stable, with year-end debt-to-EBITDA of 4.8x, on track for a long-term target of 4.75x.

• Board approved a 3.2% dividend increase to $3.51 per share for 2026, marking 26 consecutive years of dividend growth.

Financial highlights

• Q4 comparable EBITDA reached nearly CAD 3 billion ($3.0 billion), up 13% year-over-year, with full-year growth of 9% to $11.0 billion.

• U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines set a new delivery record, with daily average flows up 9.5% and comparable EBITDA up 16% year-over-year.

• Canada Gas EBITDA rose by CAD 110 million, U.S. EBITDA by US$137–188 million, and Mexico EBITDA by US$118–163 million (70% increase year-over-year) due to project completions and settlements.

• Power and Energy Solutions segment saw a 36% decline in comparable EBITDA, primarily due to Bruce Power outages, with Bruce Power availability at 85.7–86%.

• Full-year comparable funds generated from operations (FGFO) for 2025 were $8.0 billion, up from $7.9 billion in 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance of $11.6–$11.8 billion and 2028 outlook of $12.6–$13.1 billion.

• Expects to fully allocate or surpass the $6 billion annual net capital expenditure target through 2030, with potential to exceed this in 2029 and beyond.

• Dividend per share expected to increase from $3.40 in 2025 to $3.51 in 2026, with a current yield of 4.2%.

• Anticipates North American natural gas demand to rise by 45 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and data center growth.