Ternium (TX) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA increased sequentially in Q3 2025, driven by lower costs, efficiency gains, and competitiveness initiatives.

• Net loss of $270 million in Q3 2025 was mainly due to a $405 million non-cash write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas and a $32 million litigation provision.

• Steel segment shipments rose in Q3, led by Mexico and Brazil, with cash operating income up 10% due to margin improvements.

• Mining segment shipments and margins declined sequentially, impacted by lower production and higher costs.

• Interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS was declared, bringing total 2025 distributions to $2.70 per ADS, a 7% yield.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $420 million, up from $403 million in Q2 2025, with margin improving to 11%.

• Net sales for Q3 2025 were $3.96 billion, flat sequentially but down 12% year-over-year.

• Net cash position at quarter-end was $715 million, down from $1.0 billion in June 2025, reflecting high capex and changes in Argentine securities.

• Free cash flow was negative $175 million in Q3 2025 due to high capex.

• Capex totaled $711 million in Q3 2025, mainly for expansion at the Pesquería Industrial Center.

Outlook and guidance

• Adjusted EBITDA expected to decrease slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal shipment slowdown, but margin to remain stable.

• Prices in Mexico and Argentina expected to decrease slightly in Q4, with potential recovery in Mexico in late Q4 or early Q1 2026.

• Capex for 2025 projected between $2.5–$2.6 billion, with a decrease to $1.9 billion in 2026.

• Entering 2026 with EBITDA margin around 10–11%, aiming to approach $150/ton target.

• Mexico shipments to decline in Q4 2025 amid subdued construction and trade uncertainty; Brazil expects cost improvements; Argentina sees opportunities in agriculture, mining, and energy.