Ternium (TX) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered resilient results in 2025, achieving $250 million in cost savings and maintaining a 10–10.5% EBITDA margin, despite challenging market and safety conditions, including fatal accidents in Mexico and Brazil.

• Net income for Q4 2025 was $171 million, with full year net income at $303 million, impacted by a $405 million deferred tax asset write-down at Usiminas and a $117 million litigation provision loss.

• Advanced major industrial expansion, including new cold rolling and galvanized lines at Pesquería, and continued construction of a slab plant, supported by a $1.25 billion green loan and multiple sustainability awards.

• Cash generation was steady, with $2.3 billion in operations for 2025, supporting high CapEx and maintaining a net cash position of $700–712 million at year-end.

• Annual dividend proposal of $2.70 per ADS for 2025, totaling $530 million and implying a yield over 6%.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $395 million, with a margin of 10.5%; full year Adjusted EBITDA was $1.5 billion, down 24% from 2024.

• Net sales in Q4 2025 were $3.8 billion, with full year net sales totaling $15.6 billion, down 12% from 2024.

• Steel product shipments in Q4 2025 were 3.7 million tons; full year shipments fell 4% to 15.1 million tons.

• Mining segment shipments in Q4 2025 were 3.4 million tons, up 5% sequentially and 12% year-over-year; full year mining shipments rose 14% to 13.0 million tons.

• CapEx peaked at $463 million in Q4 and $2.5 billion for the year, mainly for Pesquería expansion.

Outlook and guidance

• Adjusted EBITDA and shipments are expected to increase in Q1 2026, especially in Mexico, with improved margins due to higher revenue per ton.

• CapEx is expected to decrease to $2 billion in 2026, $1.2 billion in 2027, and $800 million in 2028.

• CANACERO forecasts Mexican steel demand to grow 4% in 2026, with local mills aiming to gain market share from imports.

• Margin recovery toward 15% targeted by end of 2026, with further improvement possible if trade negotiations succeed.

• Argentina's steel demand is projected to recover gradually in 2026, driven by key sectors and new trade agreements.