Tourmaline Oil (TOU) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 average production reached 634,750 BOEs/day, at the high end of guidance, despite storage injections and shut-ins, with liquids production up 4% to 147,165 bpd and a long-term target of 200,000 bpd by 2031.

• Largest natural gas producer in Canada and fifth largest in North America, with 5.5 billion Boe 2P reserves and 24.8 Tcf of gas reserves as of December 2024.

• Entered new long-term gas storage and LNG supply agreements, enhancing market flexibility and international exposure.

• Declared a special dividend of $0.25/share and plans to maintain a strong base dividend.

• Exploring the sale of the Peace River High complex to lower costs and reinvest in higher-return assets.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 cash flow was $719.6 million ($1.85/diluted share), with net earnings of $190.4 million ($0.49/diluted share), and total revenue of $1.48 billion.

• Q3 2025 capital expenditures were $774 million, with EP expenditures at $825.5 million; full-year EP capital budget remains at $2.60–2.85 billion.

• Net debt at September 30, 2025 was $2.26 billion, approximately 0.6x net debt to 2026 forecast cash flow.

• Closed a $71.7 million royalty transaction and $230 million secondary offering of Topaz shares.

• Annualized base and special dividend of $3.00/share offers a 5% income yield.

Outlook and guidance

• Q4 2025 production expected at 655,000–665,000 BOEs/day; 2025 exit guidance of 680,000–700,000 BOEs/day; 2026 average production guidance of 690,000–710,000 BOEs/day; multi-year plan targets 850,000 BOEs/day by 2031.

• 2026 capital program set at $2.9 billion; anticipated 2026 cash flow of $4.0 billion and free cash flow of $0.9 billion at current strip pricing.

• For every $0.10/MCF US AECO basis tightening, 2026 cash flow and free cash flow increase by $50 million.

• Up to $250 million in capital spending could be deferred in a low-price scenario with minor impact on 2026 production.

• Free cash flow projected to grow 2.5x as margin expansion and maintenance capital are achieved.