Tourmaline Oil (TOU) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 net earnings reached CAD 1.3 billion (CAD 3.51 per diluted share) with record production and a 43% dividend increase, despite the weakest AECO gas prices in 25 years.

• 2025 forecast free cash flow is CAD 1.4 billion, up from previous guidance, with cash flow forecast at CAD 4.3 billion.

• Largest natural gas producer in Canada, with 5.5 billion BOE 2P reserves and Q1 2025 production forecast of 630,000–635,000 BOE/d.

• Announced a 43% increase in the quarterly base dividend to CAD 0.50/share for Q1 2025 and a CAD 0.35/share special dividend, with plans for special dividends each quarter in 2025.

• Peer-leading cash flow growth, free cash flow generation, and lowest capital cost operator in the basin.

Financial highlights

• Full year 2024 cash flow was CAD 3.2 billion; free cash flow was CAD 1 billion; capital expenditures totaled CAD 1.9 billion.

• 2024 average production was 605,000 BOE/d in Q4 (up 9% YoY); average liquids production was 138,500 barrels/d (up 17% YoY).

• 2024 PDP F&D costs were CAD 8.45/BOE with a recycle ratio of 1.8x; 2P FD&A costs were CAD 7.28/BOE with a recycle ratio of 2.1x.

• Net debt at YE24 was CAD 1.7 billion, or 0.4x 2025 forecast cash flow, nearing the long-term target of CAD 1.5 billion.

• Paid CAD 3.32/share in combined base and special dividends in 2024, a 5.3% trailing yield.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 production guidance remains 635,000–665,000 BOE/d; Q1 2025 expected at 630,000–635,000 BOE/d.

• 2025 forecast cash flow is CAD 4.3 billion; free cash flow forecast is CAD 1.4 billion.

• 2025 EP capital budget unchanged at CAD 2.6–2.85 billion, with major facility and pipeline expenditures planned.

• 2025–2029 production CAGR of 4%, with production expected to grow from 650,000 to 750,000 BOE/d.

• Expects to exit 2025 with 1.3 BCF/d in exports to premium markets, including the US Gulf and international hubs.