UniCredit (UCG) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 15 consecutive quarters of profitable growth, with record Q3 and nine-month results for 2024 and sector leadership across key metrics.

• Transformation strategy since 2021 focused on sustainable quality growth, operational and capital excellence, and a client-centric approach, elevating the group among European peers.

• Upgraded 2024 guidance and set strong ambitions for 2025–2026, underpinned by sustainable growth and a new run rate.

• Diversified pan-European franchise and empowered local banks drive resilience and growth.

• ROTE reached 19.7% in 3Q24, up 1.4 p.p. year-over-year, and EPS rose 21.8% to €1.58.

Financial highlights

• Net profit for 9M24 reached €7.75bn, up 15.7% year-over-year; Q3 net profit at €2.5bn, up 8.2% year-over-year.

• Net revenue for 9M24 rose 5.4% to €18.6bn; Q3 net revenue up 2.6% to €6bn.

• EPS up 31% year-over-year; accrued DPS up 48%; tangible book per share up 20% in nine months.

• Cost/income ratio improved to 36.6% for 9M24, down 2.5p.p. year-over-year.

• CET1 ratio at 16.1% as of 3Q24, with €10.1bn organic capital generation in 9M24.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 net profit expected above €9bn, or around €10bn on a clean basis, with net revenue guidance raised to ~€24bn.

• FY24 RoTE guidance improved to ~17%; cost of risk expected below 20 bps; costs to remain below €9.5bn.

• Ambition for 2025–26: net profit above €9bn annually, costs broadly flat, and best-in-class sustainable distributions.

• Cash dividend payout ratio to increase to 50% of net profit from 2025.

• FY24 distribution confirmed in line with FY23; intention to deploy or return €6.5bn excess capital by 2027.