Upstart (UPST) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved triple-digit revenue growth and returned to GAAP profitability a quarter ahead of expectations in Q2 2025, with net income of $5.6M and total revenue of $257M, up 102% year-over-year, driven by model improvements and rapid expansion in new product lines.

• Originations reached $2.8B, up 154% year-over-year, with 372,599 loans and significant contributions from new products such as home, auto, and small-dollar loans.

• Model 22, leveraging advanced neural networks, drove conversion rates from 19% in Q1 to 23.9% in Q2, improving separation accuracy by 17 percentage points.

• 92% of loans were fully automated, driving operational efficiency and higher conversion rates.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $53.1M (21% margin), and contribution margin held at 58%.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 total revenue was $257M, up 102% year-over-year; fee revenue was $241M, up 84% year-over-year and 15% above guidance.

• Net income for Q2 2025 was $5.6M, reversing a net loss of $54.5M in Q2 2024; adjusted net income was $42.2M.

• Personal loan originations were $2.6B, up 143% year-over-year; auto originations grew over 6x to $114M; home originations grew ~9x to $68M.

• 53% of loan originations in H1 2025 were purchased by institutional investors, 26% retained by lending partners, and 21% held on balance sheet.

• Cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2025 were $395.9M; total borrowings were $1.43B.

Outlook and guidance

• Q3 2025 revenue expected at $280M, with $275M from fees and $5M net interest income; GAAP net income at $9M, adjusted net income at $44M, and adjusted EBITDA at $56M.

• Full-year 2025 revenue guidance raised to $1.055B, with $990M from fees, $65M net interest income, 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $35M GAAP net income.

• Management expects continued growth in transaction volume and revenue, supported by improvements in AI models and expanded institutional investor participation.

• Macro assumptions remain conservative, expecting a steady environment with no rate cuts and resilient labor market.