Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Blue Creek mine construction was completed ahead of schedule and on budget, with total project spend of $1,022.9 million, fully funded from operations and driving record quarterly sales, production, and margin expansion.

• Net income reached $72.3 million in Q1 2026, reversing a net loss of $8.2 million in Q1 2025, reflecting operational improvements and cost controls.

• Adjusted EBITDA surged 263% year-over-year to $143.4 million, with margin expanding to 31.3%.

• Achieved record quarterly sales and production volumes, exceeding internal plans and supported by premium steelmaking coal prices.

• Declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share.

Financial highlights

• Total revenues rose 53% year-over-year to $458.6 million, driven by a 38% increase in sales volumes and improved pricing.

• Cash cost of sales per short ton decreased 14% to $96.17, benefiting from Blue Creek's lower cost structure and Section 45X tax credit.

• Operating income was $79.4 million, up from a loss of $17.4 million in Q1 2025.

• Free cash flow was negative $91.9 million in Q1 2026, reflecting capital investments and working capital build, but is expected to turn positive as working capital unwinds.

• Liquidity stood at $363.7 million at quarter-end, including $202.6 million in cash and equivalents.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: 12.5–13.5 million short tons in sales, 12.0–13.0 million short tons in production, with cash cost of sales expected at $95–$110 per short ton.

• Capital expenditures projected at $155–$190 million for 2026, including $50–$75 million for Blue Creek and $105–$115 million for existing mines.

• Free cash flow is expected to turn positive in Q2 as working capital unwinds.

• Key risks include inflationary cost pressures, global trade/tariff policies, index pricing, freight rates, labor contracts, and market demand.