Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record annual and quarterly sales and production volumes in 2025, driven by the early, on-budget start of Blue Creek longwall operations, which began eight months ahead of schedule and were fully funded by cash from operations.

• Blue Creek's ramp-up was smooth, significantly improving production scale, cost structure, and exceeding volume expectations.

• Reduced cash cost of sales per short ton by 19%–22% year-over-year, reflecting operational efficiencies and Blue Creek's lower cost structure.

• Finalized two federal coal leases, adding 53 million short tons of reserves and extending mine life.

• Declared $0.32 per share in cash dividends for 2025 and regular quarterly dividends.

Financial highlights

• 2025 revenue was $1.31 billion, down 14% year-over-year, with Q4 2025 revenues at $384 million, up from $297 million in Q4 2024 due to a 53% increase in sales volumes.

• Net income for Q4 2025 was $23 million ($0.44 per diluted share), up from $1.1 million in Q4 2024; full-year net income was $57 million, down from $250.6 million in 2024.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $256.5 million, with Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at $92.9 million, up 31% sequentially and 75% year-over-year.

• Cash cost of sales per short ton at FOB port was $93–$94 in Q4 2025, down from $120 in Q4 2024; full-year 2025 cash cost of sales per short ton was $101.30.

• Free cash flow was negative $173 million for 2025, reflecting significant capital investments; Q4 2025 free cash flow was negative $28.3 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 coal sales guidance: 12.5–13.5 million short tons (midpoint growth rate 35%); production: 12.0–13.0 million short tons (midpoint growth rate 23%).

• 2026 cash cost of sales (FOB port) expected at $95–$110 per short ton.

• Capital expenditures for 2026: $105–$115 million for sustaining mines, $50–$75 million for Blue Creek project.

• 90% of 2026 midpoint sales volume is under contract, including 85% of Blue Creek volume.

• Free cash flow expected to be negative in H1 2026 due to working capital and CapEx, turning positive in H2.