Alstom (ALO) Q1 24/25 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2024/25 orders totaled €3.6 billion, with backlog stable at €92 billion and book-to-bill at 0.83; major contract wins in Europe, including Hamburg, Italy, and the UK.

• Q1 sales reached €4.4 billion, up 5.1% year-over-year, with organic growth of 5.3%.

• Deleveraging plan executed via €1 billion rights issue, €750 million hybrid bond, and asset disposals, totaling €2.4 billion in net proceeds.

• Moody’s upgraded credit rating outlook to stable following deleveraging.

• Strong operational focus on Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, with several new lines and extensions inaugurated.

Financial highlights

• Q1 sales: €4,389 million (+5.1% year-over-year); Rolling Stock: €2,338 million (+2%), Services: €1,073 million (+12%), Signalling: €637 million (+6%), Systems: €341 million (+4%).

• Services delivered 13.1% organic growth year-over-year.

• 965 cars produced in Q1, down from 1,122 last year, but with a more favorable contract mix.

• Free cash flow for the full year expected between €300 million and €500 million; H1 free cash flow expected to be negative in the same range.

• Europe accounted for 70% of order intake; Services, Signalling, and Systems made up 61% of orders.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2024/25 guidance confirmed: book-to-bill above one, organic sales growth around 5%, adjusted EBIT margin around 6.5%.

• Margin improvement expected to be more pronounced in H2 due to seasonality and cost-saving initiatives.

• Order intake expected to accelerate in Q2 and throughout the year.

• No change to midterm ambitions or framework provided in May.

• End of Bombardier Transportation integration program expected in FY 2024/25.