Alstom (ALO) Q3 24/25 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Orders for the first nine months of FY 2024/25 reached €15.2 billion, up 9.4% year-over-year, with a backlog of €94.7 billion and strong Q3 order intake, especially in Europe.

• Sales for the nine-month period totaled €13,448 million, representing a 5.3% increase year-over-year, driven by growth in Services and Systems.

• Rolling Stock output was 1,098 cars in Q3 and 3,101 cars over 9 months, with a full-year target of 4,300–4,400 cars.

• Integration efforts are concluding as planned, with the last countries adopting company tools in Q4 and Bombardier Transportation integration expected to end in FY 2024/25.

Financial highlights

• Q3 order intake reached €4.3 billion, with Q3 sales at €4.7 billion and 9-month sales at €13.4 billion (+5.3% y/y, 6.9% organic).

• Book-to-bill ratio was 0.9 for Q3 and 1.1 for the 9-month period, indicating robust demand and order conversion.

• Services and Signalling accounted for 58% of nine-month orders, with Services sales up 9% to €3,257 million and Systems sales up 20% to €1,342 million.

• Rolling stock output in Q3 was 1,098 cars, up 6% from Q2 and 10% from H1 monthly average.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2024/25 guidance confirmed: book-to-bill above 1, organic sales growth around 5%, adjusted EBIT margin around 6.5%, and free cash flow between €300 million and €500 million.

• Rolling Stock production output expected between 4,300 and 4,400 cars for the year, below previous forecast but higher than last year excluding Derby.

• Management remains confident in meeting guidance, with robust demand and consistent down payments anticipated.

• Mid- to long-term ambitions remain unchanged as per May 8, 2024 announcement.