American Financial Group (AFG) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2024 net earnings were $181 million ($2.16 per share), up from $177 million ($2.09 per share) in Q3 2023, driven by higher investment income and lower net realized losses, partially offset by lower underwriting profit and after-tax non-core losses of $0.15 per share.

• Core net operating earnings for Q3 2024 were $194 million ($2.31 per share), down from $208 million ($2.45 per share) year-over-year, mainly due to higher catastrophe losses and lower favorable reserve development.

• Annualized core operating return on equity was 16.2% for Q3 2024, compared to 18.3% in the prior year quarter.

• Board declared a $4.00 per share special dividend, payable November 26, 2024, totaling approximately $335 million.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2024 gross written premiums rose 19% year-over-year to $3.75 billion; net written premiums up 14% to $2.35 billion, driven by the Crop Risk Services acquisition.

• Property and casualty net investment income increased 15% year-over-year in Q3 2024, supported by higher interest rates and alternative investment returns.

• Combined ratio for Specialty P&C operations was 94.3% in Q3 2024, up from 92.2% in Q3 2023, reflecting higher catastrophe losses.

• Book value per share at September 30, 2024, was $56.10; excluding AOCI, $57.71, up from $54.72 at year-end 2023.

• Growth in book value per share plus dividends was 8.7% for the quarter and 19.3% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Management expects continued premium growth and strong underwriting results in a favorable property and casualty insurance market, with excess capital to support dividends, share repurchases, and acquisitions.

• No change to guidance; expectations for $11 EPS and a combined ratio similar to 2023 remain, pending final crop results and catastrophe activity.