American Financial Group (AFG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Core net operating earnings per share reached $10.29 for 2025, with a core operating ROE of 18.2% and net earnings per share of $10.08, ROE 17.8%.

• Fourth quarter core net operating earnings were $305 million ($3.65 per share), up from $262 million ($3.12 per share) year-over-year.

• Fourth quarter marked a record underwriting profit, driven by strong crop insurance and specialty P&C performance, with a 41% increase year-over-year.

• Total capital returned to shareholders in 2025 was $707 million, including $334 million in special dividends, $274 million in regular dividends, and $99 million in share repurchases.

Financial highlights

• Book value per share at year-end was $57.78; excluding AOCI, $58.38.

• Growth in book value per share plus dividends was 22.3% for the year; 17.2% excluding AOCI.

• P&C net investment income (excluding alternatives) rose 5% year-over-year; alternative investment returns were 0.9% in Q4, down from 4.9% prior year.

• Full year P&C net investment income down 8% YOY, up 5% excluding alternative investments.

• Gross written premiums grew 2% for the year; net written premiums were flat.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 business plan assumes 3–5% net written premium growth, a 92.5% combined ratio, 5.25% reinvestment rate, and 8% return on $2.8B alternative investments.

• Core Net Operating Earnings per share expected to be ~$11 in 2026, with core operating ROE of ~18%.

• Optimism for growth in startup businesses and improved underwriting in specialty casualty.