American Financial Group (AFG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Core net operating earnings per share reached $10.75 for 2024, with a core operating ROE of 19.3% and net earnings per share of $10.57; annualized core operating ROE in Q4 was 21.9%.

• Net written premiums grew 7% year-over-year, with record premium production and strong renewal rate increases.

• Returned $791 million to shareholders in 2024, including $545 million in special dividends and a 12.7% increase in regular dividends.

• Book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends grew 19.6% year-over-year.

• Maintained a strong capital position, supporting flexibility for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases in 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q4 core net operating earnings were $262 million ($3.12 per share), up from $238 million year-over-year.

• P&C net investment income reached $784 million in 2024, up 8% year-over-year, with Q4 investment income up 21%.

• Book value per share (excluding AOCI) was $56.03 at year-end, up from $54.72.

• Q4 combined ratio was 89.0%, up 1.3 points year-over-year, with 1.1 points of catastrophe losses and 1.8 points of adverse prior year development.

• Growth in book value per share plus dividends was 19.6% for 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 business plan assumes 5% growth in net written premiums, a combined ratio of 92.5%, and a reinvestment rate of 5.75%.

• Core net operating earnings per share expected to be approximately $10.50 in 2025, with a core operating ROE of about 18%.

• Estimated $60–$70 million in losses from Southern California wildfires included in 2025 assumptions.

• Expense ratio expected to rise in 2025 due to higher broker commissions and lower ceding commissions.

• 2025 guidance includes an 8% return assumption on $2.7 billion in alternative investments.