Deutsche Post (DHL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue grew 3% year-over-year to EUR 84.2 billion in 2024, with Q4 revenue up 6.4% to EUR 22.7 billion, driven by e-commerce and supply chain growth despite limited global economic tailwinds and regulatory constraints in Germany.

• EBIT declined 7.2% to EUR 5.9 billion, but Q4 EBIT rose 12.9% to EUR 1.9 billion, with free cash flow at EUR 3.0 billion and Q4 FCF up 56.4% to EUR 1.3 billion.

• Net profit attributable to shareholders was EUR 3.3 billion, down 9% year-over-year; basic EPS declined to EUR 2.86.

• The "Fit for Growth" program was launched, targeting over EUR 1 billion in cost improvements by 2026, including a reduction of 8,000 positions in Germany.

• Dividend proposal of EUR 1.85 per share and share buyback program increased to EUR 6 billion, extended to 2026.

Financial highlights

• Free cash flow remained robust at EUR 3.0 billion, with a high FCF conversion ratio of 81%.

• Gross capital expenditure was EUR 3.1 billion, down from EUR 3.4 billion in 2023.

• Dividend payout ratio based on the proposal is 64%, with basic EPS at EUR 2.86.

• Share buyback program accelerated and raised to EUR 6 billion through 2026.

• Operating cash flow for FY 2024 was EUR 8.7 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 EBIT guidance set at at least EUR 6 billion, with free cash flow (excluding M&A) targeted at EUR 3 billion and gross capex at EUR 3.0–3.3 billion.

• Medium-term targets: Group EBIT above EUR 7 billion and FCF at least EUR 3 billion annually, assuming market growth returns to trend.

• "Fit for Growth" program to deliver over EUR 1 billion run-rate savings by end of 2026, with about EUR 500 million run-rate by end of 2025.

• Guidance does not assume a significant economic recovery and excludes potential impacts from tariff or trade policy changes.

• Management remains focused on efficiency and sustainable growth amid macroeconomic volatility.