Greggs (GRG) H1 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Total sales rose 13.8% year-over-year to £960.6m, with like-for-like company-managed shop sales up 7.4%.

• Underlying pre-tax profit increased 16.3% to £74.1m; interim dividend up 18.8% to 19.0p.

• 99 new shops opened (including 30 relocations), 18 closures, resulting in 51 net new shops and 2,524 trading locations as of July 1.

• Strategic investments in supply chain, menu innovation, and digital engagement underpin growth.

• Shop estate expansion targets 140–160 net new openings in 2024, weighted to H2.

Financial highlights

• Revenue reached £960.6m (H1 2023: £844.0m), with underlying pre-tax profit of £74.1m.

• Underlying diluted EPS rose 15% to 53.8p.

• Gross margin improved to 61.5% due to favorable food and packaging costs.

• Cash balance at period end was £141.5m, reflecting ongoing capital investment.

• Capital expenditure in H1 was £102.2m, with full-year guidance of £250–£280m.

Outlook and guidance

• Board expectations for the full year outcome remain unchanged; trading in line with plan.

• Cost inflation for 2024 expected at 4–5%, with energy costs anticipated to be deflationary.

• Wage inflation for 2024 projected at 9.5%, reflecting National Living Wage increases.

• Full-year capex expected at upper end of £250–£280m if Kettering land purchase completes.

• Full-year dividend expected to be 2x covered by earnings, maintaining progressive policy.