Greggs (GRG) H1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Total sales increased 7.0% to £1,027.7m for H1 2025, with like-for-like growth of 2.6% in company-managed shops and 4.8% in franchise shops, despite challenging market conditions.

• Operating profit declined 7.1% to £70.4m and pre-tax profit fell 14.3% to £63.5m compared to H1 2024, impacted by cost headwinds, lower footfall, and weather disruptions.

• Interim dividend maintained at 19.0p per share, reflecting a progressive dividend policy and sector-leading brand value.

• Strategic focus remains on profitable growth, menu innovation, digital expansion, and supply chain investment.

• Estate expanded by 31 net new shops, reaching 2,649 locations, with a strong pipeline for further growth.

Financial highlights

• Revenue rose to £1,027.7m (H1 2025) from £960.6m (H1 2024), a 7.0% increase.

• Operating profit dropped to £70.4m from £75.8m (-7.1%), and pre-tax profit to £63.5m from £74.1m (-14.3%).

• Diluted EPS fell to 45.3p from 53.8p (-15.8%), impacted by a higher income tax charge.

• Net cash inflow from operating activities after lease payments was £94.3m, down from £116.6m.

• Net debt position of £2.5m at half-year, reflecting planned investment outflows.

Outlook and guidance

• Board expects full-year operating profit to be modestly below 2024, with H1 more heavily impacted.

• Cost inflation guidance unchanged at about 6% for the year; energy pricing largely fixed.

• CapEx guidance for the year is £300m, with investment peaking in 2025 before returning to a more cash-generative phase.

• On track for 140–150 net new shop openings in 2025.

• Board's full-year outlook remains consistent with the July update and previous guidance.