Greggs (GRG) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record sales exceeding £2,014.4 million, up 11.3% year-over-year, and record underlying pre-tax profit of £189.8 million, up 13.2%.

• Maintained number one position in food-to-go and value, with brand health metrics at record highs.

• Opened 226 new shops in 2024, net growth of 145, ending the year with 2,618 shops and a strong pipeline for further expansion, focusing on non-high street sites.

• Digital and evening channels grew, with delivery now 6.7% of company-managed sales and evening trade at 9.0%.

• Continued investment in supply chain and technology to support future growth.

Financial highlights

• Total sales rose 11.3% to £2,014.4 million, with underlying operating profit up 13.7% to £195.3 million and underlying PBT up 13.2% to £189.8 million.

• Free cash inflow of £254.2 million; net cash position at year-end £125.3 million.

• Gross margin improved to 61.8% (from 60.8%); underlying ROCE at 20.3%.

• Underlying diluted EPS up 11.1% to 137.5p; total dividend per share 69p, with payout ratio maintained at 50%.

• Exceptional gain of £14 million from disposal of a legacy freehold site.

Outlook and guidance

• Planning for 140–150 net new shop openings and over 50 relocations in 2025, with over 200 gross openings.

• Expecting about 6% overall cost inflation in 2025, mainly from wage and National Insurance increases.

• Food and packaging cost inflation anticipated at mid-single digits, with five months forward cover.

• Guidance reaffirmed for 2025; confident in managing inflationary headwinds and delivering further progress.

• Like-for-like sales in company-managed shops up 1.7% in first nine weeks of 2025.