Lam Research (LRCX) Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2024 summary

Market outlook and segment trends

• 2024 wafer fab equipment (WFE) market expected in the mid-$90 billion range, with a slight upward revision during the year.

• Leading-edge foundry and logic demand remains strong, driven by accelerator chips and AI, with similar or stronger outlook for 2025.

• DRAM investment is robust, supported by the transition to DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory, with continued strength expected into next year.

• NAND spending is weak for the second consecutive year but anticipated to recover in 2025, mainly through technology conversions.

• Trailing edge investment is strong in China, focused on analog, industrial, and automotive, but soft elsewhere due to inventory cycles.

Technology inflections and R&D priorities

• R&D spending increased in 2024 to capitalize on major technology inflections and position for future revenue growth.

• Key focus areas include Gate-All-Around, backside power, advanced packaging, dry photoresist, and new metallization schemes.

• Gate-All-Around and backside power each represent nearly $1 billion incremental opportunity per 100,000 wafer starts.

• Advanced packaging, especially through-silicon via, is a major revenue driver, with high-bandwidth memory sales tripling this year.

• 3D DRAM is a late-decade opportunity, with interim steps like 4F squared providing incremental etch and deposition opportunities.

Competitive landscape and China

• Chinese WFE spending is strong, especially among new customers at mature nodes, with a first half-weighted profile in 2024.

• China’s customers have multi-year roadmaps, aiming to supply domestic demand with local production.

• Chinese equipment makers are technologically behind global leaders, but are improving as restrictions force local innovation.

• Best technology is expected to continue winning, with ongoing investment in innovation.