Methanex (MX) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 saw an average realized price of $404/ton, with produced sales of 1.7 million tons, generating adjusted EBITDA of $248 million and adjusted net income of $1.30 per share, both up from Q4 2024 due to higher prices and sales, despite lower production from Geismar outages.

• Net income attributable to shareholders was $111 million in Q1 2025, up from $45 million in Q4 2024.

• Methanol markets were tight in Q1 due to global supply constraints, with improvement in the Atlantic Basin as outages resolved and supply from the Middle East increased.

• The OCI acquisition is progressing, with regulatory approval and deal closure expected in Q2 2025; all free cash flow is being directed to deleveraging post-acquisition.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $248 million, higher than Q4 2024, driven by increased realized prices and sales.

• Adjusted net income was $1.30 per share for Q1 2025.

• Revenue for Q1 2025 was $896 million, down from $949 million in Q4 2024.

• Ended Q1 with $1.03 billion in cash and access to a $500 million undrawn revolving credit facility.

• Quarterly dividend of $0.185 per share ($12.5 million total) was paid.

Outlook and guidance

• Q2 2025 average realized price is forecasted at $360–$370/ton, lower than Q1, with expected lower adjusted EBITDA and produced sales due to lower prices and the Geismar 3 outage.

• Demand in Q2 is expected to be higher than Q1, driven by seasonal activity and higher MTO operating rates.

• 2025 production guidance will be updated in Q2; full-year production expected to be below previous 7.5 million tonne guidance due to unplanned outages.

• No significant growth capital anticipated in the next few years; focus remains on balance sheet strength and financial flexibility.