Mondi (MNDI) Q1 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 saw higher sales volumes, effective cost control, and fewer maintenance shuts, offsetting lower average selling prices compared to Q4 2024.

• Underlying EBITDA for Q1 2025 was €290 million, up from €261 million in Q4 2024, including a €2 million forestry fair value gain.

• Major capacity expansion projects, including the new kraft paper machine at Štětí and the Duino conversion in Italy, are ramping up successfully.

• Integration of the Schumacher acquisition is progressing well, with 2,200 new employees joining and positive initial engagement from both customers and new employees.

• Recent price increases in paper grades are expected to benefit results from Q2 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 underlying EBITDA: €290 million (Q4 2024: €261 million; Q1 2024: €214 million).

• Forestry fair value gain of €2 million in Q1 2025, compared to a €27 million loss in Q4 2024.

• Input costs remained flat overall, with some intra-quarter volatility; higher energy costs offset lower PFR (waste paper) costs in Q1.

• Maintenance costs for the year are expected to be similar to last year, around EUR 100 million, with no major maintenance shuts in Q1.

• 2024 full-year revenue: €7.4 billion; underlying EBITDA: €1.0 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year guidance for input costs remains flat, with some expected volatility between quarters.

• Incremental contribution from organic expansion projects expected in the EUR 50–100 million range for the year, including all startup costs.

• Schumacher acquisition expected to contribute around EUR 30 million net of transaction and synergy costs for the nine months of ownership in 2024.

• No change to previous guidance on depreciation; expected to rise to around EUR 500 million by 2026–2027.

• Stronger order books and increased demand for sustainable packaging products support recent price increases, with benefits expected from Q2 2025.