Mondi (MNDI) Q3 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Underlying EBITDA for Q3 was EUR 223 million, reflecting subdued demand and price declines in pulp and paper, and includes a EUR 20 million forestry fair value gain.

• Packaging converting operations remained stable quarter-on-quarter despite challenging conditions.

• Operational focus intensified on efficiency, cost control, and cash generation to mitigate market softness.

• The business is being reorganized into two main units, combining Uncoated Fine Paper with Corrugated Packaging and Flexible Packaging.

• Integration of the Schumacher acquisition is progressing, with identified cost synergies increased to EUR 32 million.

Financial highlights

• Q3 underlying EBITDA was EUR 223 million, down from EUR 274 million in Q2 2025 and EUR 351 million in Q2 2024.

• Forestry fair value gain in Q3 was EUR 20 million, with a full-year gain expected to be around EUR 60 million.

• Maintenance shutdown costs increased to EUR 50 million in Q3, with a similar amount expected in Q4.

• FX movements, particularly a weaker dollar, had a EUR 5 million negative impact in the quarter.

• 2024 full-year revenue was EUR 7.4 billion with underlying EBITDA of EUR 1.0 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Challenging trading conditions are expected to persist for the rest of the year as demand-side confidence remains fragile and key markets are oversupplied.

• Net incremental contribution to full-year 2025 EBITDA from capacity expansion projects is expected to be around EUR 30 million.

• CapEx is focused on stay-in-business and cost optimization; major expansion at Hinton Mill and feasibility study for a new sack kraft paper machine in Canada are on hold.

• Dividend policy will be reviewed at year-end, with a focus on cash delivery and balance sheet strength.

• Long-term confidence in sustainable growth fundamentals and ability to capture future market opportunities.