Mondi (MNDI) Q3 2024 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2024 underlying EBITDA was €223 million, down from €351 million in Q2, mainly due to higher planned maintenance shuts and a forestry fair value loss compared to a gain in H1.

• Seasonally softer demand and modestly higher input costs, especially for recycled paper and energy, impacted results.

• Packaging paper and corrugated/flexible packaging segments benefited from earlier price increases, while uncoated fine paper and pulp prices declined.

• Major capital investment projects at Štětí and Duino remain on track for startup in 2025, with expected EBITDA contributions.

• The acquisition of Schumacher's Western European assets will add capacity for sustainable packaging growth and is expected to complete in H1 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q3 underlying EBITDA was €223 million, down €90 million from Q2, mainly due to a €50 million swing in forestry fair value and €40 million higher maintenance costs.

• Maintenance shuts cost €60 million in Q3, with €20 million expected in Q4, totaling €100 million for the year.

• Forestry fair value loss of €15 million in Q3, compared to a €35 million gain in Q2.

• Higher input costs and softer seasonal demand also impacted results.

Outlook and guidance

• Trading conditions remain muted amid macroeconomic uncertainty, but fewer maintenance shuts and a normal seasonal demand pickup are expected in Q4.

• Q4 forestry fair value loss expected to be at least similar to Q3's €15 million.

• Capital projects are on track, with Štětí starting in early 2025 and Duino ramping up in H2 2025.

• Organic growth investments and major CapEx projects are anticipated to deliver meaningful EBITDA from 2025.