Thai Oil (TOP) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2027/Q3 2024 saw a net loss of 4,218 million THB, mainly due to lower oil prices, weak refining margins, and significant stock losses.

• 9M/24 net profit was 7,192 million THB, down from 16,499 million THB in 9M/23, reflecting weaker market conditions.

• Refinery utilization reached 113% in Q3, capturing recovering domestic demand and supporting local sales.

• Strategic progress continued on value chain expansion, sustainability initiatives, and new product launches.

• The company maintained a focus on domestic sales, with 86% of products sold locally for better margins.

Financial highlights

• Q3/24 sales revenue was 110,018 MB, down 8% sequentially and year-over-year.

• Q3 net loss was 4,218 million THB, with EBITDA at (4,268) MB and EPS at (1.89) THB.

• Q3/24 market GRM fell to $3.8/bbl; accounting GRM was (1.7)/bbl due to stock loss.

• Dividend paid in Q3 was 1.2 THB/share, with a yield of 2.2% and payout ratio of 24%.

• 9M/24 EBITDA was 15,554 MB, down from 31,772 MB in 9M/23.

Outlook and guidance

• Oil prices and refining margins are expected to remain volatile, with 2025 prices likely softening due to non-OPEC+ supply growth.

• Refining margins may recover slightly in 2025, supported by jet/gasoil demand but pressured by new capacity.

• Domestic petroleum demand growth in 2025 will be slow, with jet demand supported by tourism.

• Geopolitical tensions and weather patterns (La Niña) could impact demand and supply.

• PX market outlook is positive, but olefins face challenges from high capacity additions.