Thai Oil (TOP) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2/25 net profit rose to 6,505 MB, up from 5,566 MB in Q2/24, mainly from refinery operations and a one-time gain from negative goodwill related to CAP acquisition.

• 1H/25 net profit was 10,021 MB, down year-over-year, impacted by significant stock losses and lower gross integrated margin.

• High refinery utilization at 113% was maintained, with strong domestic sales and optimized production mix.

• Strategic deleveraging actions included bond buybacks and long-term loan prepayments, resulting in extra gains.

• Total comprehensive income for Q2/25 reached 7,675 MB, compared to 2,788 MB in Q2/24.

Financial highlights

• Q2/25 sales revenue was 99,440 MB, down from 123,520 MB in Q2/24, reflecting lower crude prices and sales volumes.

• Q2/25 EBITDA was 1,278 MB, down from 6,462 MB in Q1/25, mainly due to stock losses.

• Q2/25 market GRM improved to $5.2/bbl (up $1.7/bbl QoQ), but accounting GRM fell to $0.8/bbl due to stock losses.

• 1H/25 EPS was 4.47 THB/share, compared to 5.11 THB/share in 1H/24.

• One-time gains included 7,062 MB from negative goodwill and 2,696 MB from bond buybacks.

Outlook and guidance

• Softer oil prices expected in 2H/25 due to higher OPEC+ supply and economic concerns from US tariffs.

• Refining margins may soften slightly from high crude premiums and increased gasoline supply, but low gasoil inventory and refinery closures should cap downside.

• Aromatics demand seen improving on seasonality and delayed capacity additions; olefins market remains challenged by Chinese capacity growth.

• Base oil spreads expected to improve from tight Group 1 supply and new Group 2/3 capacity.

• Dividend of 1,563 MB paid during the six-month period, reflecting ongoing capital returns.