Thai Oil (TOP) Investor Presentation summary

Business overview and strategic positioning

• Operates as a leading integrated refining and petrochemical group in Asia Pacific with a 275 kbd refinery, representing 22% of Thailand's refining capacity and a Nelson Complexity Index of 9.81.

• Maintains a strong strategic partnership with PTT, which holds a 48% stake and acts as both major shareholder and principal business partner, enabling operational synergies and long-term stability.

• Business structure includes oil refining, petrochemicals, lube base, power generation, and specialty chemicals, with diversified subsidiaries and international expansion, notably in Indonesia and Singapore.

• Strategic location in Sriracha provides direct access to deep water ports, multi-product pipelines, and proximity to key domestic and Indochina markets.

• Recognized for sustainability, holding top ESG ratings and membership in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices for 12 consecutive years.

Market environment and operational performance

• Q1 2025 saw high refinery utilization at 113%, with 86% of sales to domestic customers and 11% to Indochina, supported by flexible crude sourcing and product output optimization.

• Global refining margins softened due to increased supply from new refineries in China and Nigeria, weak US demand, and economic uncertainty from US-China trade tensions and tariffs.

• Crude oil prices rose on US sanctions against Russia, but OPEC+ production increases and non-OPEC supply growth are expected to pressure prices in 2H 2025.

• Domestic petroleum demand in Thailand is forecast to grow slowly in 2025, with gasoline up 0.7%, jet fuel up 9.1%, gasoil down 0.6%, and fuel oil stable.

• Aromatics and olefins markets face slow demand growth and overcapacity, especially in China, with US tariffs impacting end-use sectors and trade flows.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 net profit was 3,504 MB, up from 2,767 MB in Q4 2024, mainly due to stock gains and a special gain from bond buyback, despite lower sales revenue and EBITDA.

• Gross refining margin (GRM) declined to $3.5/bbl in Q1 2025 from $5.1/bbl in Q4 2024, reflecting softer product spreads and higher crude premiums.

• Group cash cost remained competitive, with operating cost at $2.0/bbl and interest expense at $0.5/bbl in Q1 2025.

• Financial position as of March 2025: total assets 409,010 MB, net debt 105,840 MB, net debt/EBITDA at 6.1x, and ROE at 4.6%.

• Dividend policy targets at least 25% payout of consolidated net profit, with 2024 annual dividend at 2.70 THB/share and a yield of 6.7%.