Vistra (VST) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.5 billion, up from $1.24 billion in Q1 2025, driven by strong generation and retail performance, higher realized capacity prices, and contributions from the Lotus acquisition.

• Net income for Q1 2026 was $1.03 billion, a turnaround from a net loss of $268 million in Q1 2025, supported by higher capacity prices, energy margins, and unrealized hedge gains.

• Announced acquisition of 5,500 MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio and signed long-term PPAs with Meta and AWS, strengthening contracted revenue base.

• Returned approximately $600 million to shareholders in Q1 2026 through dividends and share repurchases, reflecting disciplined capital allocation.

• Upgraded to investment grade by two agencies, enhancing financial flexibility and capital structure.

Financial highlights

• Operating revenues for Q1 2026 were $5.64 billion, up from $3.93 billion in Q1 2025, with generation contributing $1.426 billion and retail $68 million to Adjusted EBITDA.

• Net income for Q1 2026 was $1.03 billion, compared to a net loss of $268 million in Q1 2025.

• Cash from operations was $1.20 billion, up from $599 million in Q1 2025.

• Capital expenditures for Q1 2026 were $576 million to $883 million.

• Basic EPS was $2.90, up from $(0.93) in Q1 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8–$7.6 billion and Adjusted FCFbG guidance of $3.925–$4.725 billion.

• 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity projected at $7.4–$7.8 billion, excluding Cogentrix acquisition and new PPAs.

• Guidance excludes potential contributions from pending Cogentrix acquisition and Meta/AWS PPAs; updates expected post-closing.

• Hedge coverage for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at approximately 98%, 89%, and 65%, respectively.

• Management expects sufficient liquidity to fund anticipated cash requirements, including acquisitions and debt maturities.