Vistra (VST) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved $5.912 billion in 2025 Adjusted EBITDA and $3.592 billion in Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth, both above original guidance midpoints, driven by strategic acquisitions, long-term PPAs, and disciplined execution.

• Closed the Lotus acquisition (2,600 MW) and announced the Cogentrix deal (5,500 MW), expanding the generation portfolio and geographic reach, with Cogentrix expected to close in 2026.

• Secured 3.8 GW of nuclear capacity under 20-year PPAs with Amazon and Meta, marking the largest corporate-supported nuclear upgrade in the U.S.

• Maintained commercial availability above 90% and repurchased 30% of outstanding shares since November 2021.

• U.S. electricity demand reached a record 4,200 TWh in 2025, up 2.5% year-over-year, with sustained growth expected through 2027.

Financial highlights

• 2025 Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.912 billion, with Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth at $3.592 billion, both exceeding guidance midpoints.

• Generation segment delivered $4.29 billion Adjusted EBITDA; retail contributed $1.62 billion, with strong customer count and margin.

• Retail's record 2025 result included non-recurring tailwinds from supply cost benefits and Energy Harbor gains, with over 10% growth year-over-year.

• Net income for 2025 was $944 million, impacted by $808 million in unrealized hedge losses.

• Projected over $10 billion of cash generation through 2027, with $3 billion available for further allocation after planned investments and shareholder returns.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $6.8–$7.6 billion, with Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth of $3.76–$4.56 billion.

• Projected Adjusted FCFbG per share to exceed $12.50 in 2026 and reach ~$16 by 2027, with potential for $22–$25 by 2030 if all excess cash is used for share repurchases.

• Cogentrix acquisition expected to close in 2026, delivering mid-single-digit accretion in 2027 and high-single-digit accretion on average from 2027–2029.

• Generation hedge percentages for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are ~100%, ~84%, and ~58%, respectively.

• Long-term nuclear PPAs provide a pathway to nearly 25% annual adjusted free cash flow accretion at full ramp.