Vistra (VST) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record 2024 results with Adjusted EBITDA of $5,656 million, Net Income of $2,812 million, and Cash Flow from Operations of $4,563 million, exceeding original guidance.

• Closed major acquisitions, including Energy Harbor and Vistra Vision minority interest, adding three nuclear sites, ~1 million retail customers, and nearly 2,000 employees.

• Secured a 20-year license renewal for Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant and brought two solar-plus-storage facilities online.

• Retail business reached performance levels not seen in two decades, driven by strong customer growth and disciplined margin management.

• Joined S&P 500 and Dow Jones Sustainability indices, advancing clean energy and sustainability initiatives.

Financial highlights

• Full-year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA reached $5,656 million, up $1,516 million year-over-year, driven by Energy Harbor integration and nuclear PTC.

• Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth was $2,888 million, exceeding guidance midpoint by ~$438 million.

• Operating revenues for 2024 were $17,224 million, up from $14,779 million in 2023.

• Net leverage at end of 2024 was ~2.9x Adjusted EBITDA, with further deleveraging expected.

• Share repurchases since Nov. 2021 totaled ~$4.9 billion, reducing shares outstanding by ~30%.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.5–$6.1 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth of $3.0–$3.6 billion.

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of over $6 billion, with ~80% of 2026 expected generation hedged.

• Long-term FCFbG conversion expected at 55–60% of Adjusted EBITDA.

• Expect to provide more clarity on 2026 expectations later in the year.