Greggs (GRG) H1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong H1 2026 financial performance with total sales of £1,101.5m, up 7.2% year-over-year, and profit before tax rising 19.7% to £76.0m, despite challenging market conditions.

• Outperformed the market, growing share of visits to 8.7% despite a 1.9% decline in overall market visits.

• Maintained sector-leading value reputation and continued disciplined expansion, with 34 net new shops opened in H1 and 100-110 net new shop openings expected for the year.

• Continued innovation in menu and expansion into new channels and formats, including Greggs Express, Bitesize, and international franchise trial in Tenerife South Airport.

• Strong progress on strategic initiatives, including multi-channel growth, supply chain investments, and digital transformation.

Financial highlights

• Revenue: £1,101.5m (H1 2025: £1,027.7m); company-managed like-for-like sales up 2.1%.

• Operating profit increased 22.9% to £86.5m; profit before tax reached £76.0m, up 19.7% from 2025.

• Diluted EPS rose to 54.9p (H1 2025: 45.3p); interim dividend maintained at 19.0p per share.

• Net cash at period end: £15.9m; net cash inflow from operating activities after lease payments: £111.2m.

• Gross margin improved to 62.0%; cost inflation for the year now expected at ~2.2%.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year profit expected to be broadly flat year-over-year due to increased Derby site costs and cost inflation phasing in H2.

• Medium-term guidance for at least 100 net new shop openings annually; long-term opportunity for 3,500 UK shops.

• No incremental pricing planned for autumn; inflation expected to rise slightly into 2027, but well-covered on food and energy costs.

• Free cash generation strengthening as capital intensity reduces, supporting potential for additional shareholder returns.

• Effective corporation tax rate expected at 26.0% for 2026 and 2027.