Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record Q1 2025 net income of €2.6 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with annualized ROE of 20% and best-ever cost/income ratio of 38%.

• Confirmed 2025 net income guidance well above €9 billion, supported by strong business model resilience and Italian economic stability.

• Maintained high dividend yield (~8%) and at least €8.2 billion to be returned to shareholders in 2025 via dividends and buybacks.

• Digital bank reached 1 million clients, with significant tech investments and workforce renewal targeting 9,000 exits by 2027.

• Strong ESG commitment, with €1.6 billion taxes generated, 55.7 million food and shelter interventions since 2022, and €22 billion in social lending and urban regeneration.

Financial highlights

• Q1 revenues reached a record high, with commissions up 7% year-on-year and insurance income up 1.5%.

• Cost/income ratio improved to 38%, with operating costs down 0.5% year-on-year despite tech investments.

• Net interest income declined 8% year-on-year to €3.6 billion.

• Profits on financial assets and liabilities at fair value surged to €265 million (+227% year-on-year).

• Customer financial assets up €45 billion year-on-year, with €33 billion gross AUM inflow in Q1.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 net income expected well above €9 billion, with sustainability in future years and a 70% cash payout ratio.

• Net interest income for 2025 guided above 2023 levels, supported by loan growth, security portfolios, and hedging.

• Double-digit fee and commission growth expected in wealth management and insurance; other commissions to see low/mid-single-digit growth.

• Cost of risk expected to remain between 30-40 bps even if Italian GDP growth is zero.

• CET1 ratio expected above 13.7% at year-end 2025, not including ~100bps DTA benefit post-2025.