Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record 9M net income of €7.6bn, up 6% year-over-year, with a 20% return on equity and strong Q3 performance in commissions and insurance income.

• All-time highs in commissions and insurance income for both 9M and Q3; customer financial assets exceeded €1.4 trillion, growing by €33bn year-over-year.

• Returned €8.3bn to shareholders in 2025, including €5.3bn in dividends accrued, €3.2bn interim dividend, and a €2bn share buyback completed in October.

• Business model resilience confirmed by EBA stress test and credit rating upgrades from Fitch, DBRS, and Moody’s.

• Significant ESG initiatives included €4.6bn in taxes generated, expansion of social programs, and €24.9bn in social lending and urban regeneration since 2022.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income was resilient at €11.1bn despite a significant Euribor decline; net fee and commission income rose 5.1%, and insurance business income up 4.7%.

• Cost/income ratio improved to a best-in-class 38.9%, with operating costs down 0.4% year-over-year.

• Operating margin grew 0.2% to €12.5bn; gross income rose 1.3% to €11.6bn.

• Customer financial assets increased 2.1% to €1,411bn.

• Dividend yield estimated at ~7% for 2025, with a 70% cash payout ratio.

Outlook and guidance

• Confirms full-year 2025 net income guidance of well above €9bn, with further growth expected in 2026 and additional distributions to be determined.

• Expects net interest income to rebound in Q4 and increase in 2026, supported by hedging strategy and limited further loan repricing.

• Revenue growth anticipated from resilient net interest income, higher fee and commission income, and insurance business, while operating costs are expected to decrease further.

• Plans to announce a new dividend policy in early February, considering higher payout ratios and potential share buybacks.

• Cash payout ratio of 70% of consolidated net income is planned, with an increase in dividend per share for 2025.