Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) Q4 2025 & Business update earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record net income of €9.3bn in 2025, up 8% year-over-year, exceeding business plan targets, with best-in-class cost-income ratio and lowest-ever NPL inflows and stock.

• Overdelivered on all previous business plan targets, with shareholder distribution 50% above target and strong value creation for stakeholders.

• Significant investments in technology, digital transformation, and ESG initiatives, including €26.7bn in social lending and €1bn to fight poverty.

• Customer financial assets grew to ~€1.5 trillion, with robust inflows and leadership in Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory.

• New business plan targets net income above €11.5bn by 2029, sustainable ROE above 20%, and cost-income ratio at 37%.

Financial highlights

• Operating income rose 0.6% to €27.3bn; operating margin up 1.5% to €15.8bn; operating costs down 0.6% to €11.5bn.

• Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio increased to 13.9% (13.2% post-buyback), with €8.8bn distributed to shareholders.

• Net fee and commission income increased 6.3% to €10.0bn; insurance income up 4.6% to €1.8bn; record year for commissions and insurance income.

• Cost/income ratio reached a historic low of 42.2%, with NPL stock reduced to €0.8bn and net NPL ratio at 0.8%.

• Cash dividend for 2025 up 10% year-over-year; €2.3bn buyback to be launched in July 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 net income expected at about €10bn, driven by increased revenues, stable costs, and low cost of risk.

• Cash payout ratio raised to 75%, with an additional 20% buyback, totaling a 95% payout.

• By 2029, net income targeted above €11.5bn, ROE above 20%, and €50bn capital return to shareholders.

• Operating income CAGR of +3% to €30.7bn in 2029; cost/income ratio to improve to 36.8%.

• Conservative assumptions on interest rates and GDP growth; further upside possible if market conditions improve.