Thai Oil (TOP) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1/26 saw a sharp rise in sales revenue and net profit, driven by higher crude oil prices and significant inventory gains amid Middle East geopolitical tensions.

• EBITDA surged to Baht 31,641 million, up Baht 25,660 million quarter-over-quarter, with net profit at Baht 19,481 million, up Baht 17,023 million from Q4/25.

• Inventory gains were non-recurring, resulting from timing differences in crude procurement and price spikes.

• The company maintained high refinery utilization and adjusted crude sourcing to ensure supply continuity.

Financial highlights

• Q1/26 sales revenue: Baht 114,809 million, up Baht 5,878 million QoQ and Baht 8,539 million YoY.

• EBITDA: Baht 31,641 million (Q4/25: Baht 5,981 million; Q1/25: Baht 6,462 million).

• Net profit: Baht 19,481 million (Q4/25: Baht 2,458 million; Q1/25: Baht 3,504 million).

• Stock gain: Baht 22,557 million (USD 25.3/bbl), compared to a loss in Q4/25.

• Net profit margin: 16% (Q1/25: 13%).

Outlook and guidance

• Q2/26 expected to see lower refining margins and potential inventory losses as higher crude costs are realized.

• Crude oil prices and premiums remain elevated due to ongoing Middle East tensions, but may soften if conflict de-escalates.

• Demand for refined products may weaken, and margins are projected to decline in 2H/26.

• Aromatics and LAB prices expected to rise in Q2/26, but spreads may narrow due to softer demand.