YPF (YPF) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.245 billion in Q1 2025, up 48% sequentially, driven by mature field disbursement, higher fuel prices, and improved refining/marketing margins.

• Revenues were $4.61 billion, down 3% sequentially due to lower seasonal demand and reduced oil exports, but up 7% year-over-year on strong shale activity and higher local prices.

• Net loss was $10 million, a significant improvement from a $284 million loss in Q4 2024, mainly due to mature field one-offs and higher depreciation.

• CapEx for Q1 was $1.214 billion, with 75% allocated to unconventional assets, up 4% year-over-year.

• Negative free cash flow of $957 million, impacted by mature field disbursement, M&A, and working capital needs.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA up 48% sequentially to $1.245 billion; proxy adjusted EBITDA would be $1.35 billion excluding mature fields.

• Net debt increased to $8.336 billion, with net leverage ratio rising to 1.8x from 1.6x in Q4 2024.

• Operating expenses fell 14% sequentially, mainly due to divestment of mature fields and lower transportation costs.

• Net cash and short-term investments declined 18% to $1.23 billion.

• Issued a 9-year $1.1 billion international bond at 8.5% yield, refinancing debt and funding acquisitions.

Outlook and guidance

• Targeting full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.2–$5.5 billion, assuming Brent at $72.5/bbl.

• CapEx guidance for 2025 is $5–$5.2 billion, with focus on unconventional assets.

• Net leverage expected to return to 1.5–1.6x by year-end after mature field divestments.

• Major projects underway: VMOS oil export pipeline (targeting 550 kbbl/d by 1H27), Argentina LNG (FID for FLNG Hilli Episeyo, 2.45 MTPA by 2027).

• Shale oil production target for 2025 is over 165,000 barrels per day.