YPF (YPF) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved solid Q2 results with stable revenue of $4,641M, driven by record shale oil production and major progress on the 4x4 strategic plan, including divestments and infrastructure projects.

• Shale oil production reached record highs at 145 kbbl/d (+28% y/y), now 59–62% of total oil output, offsetting mature field divestments.

• Continued focus on portfolio optimization, operational efficiency, and technology-driven initiatives to enhance profitability and resilience.

• Net income reached $58M, reversing a $10M loss in the previous quarter, but down sharply year-over-year due to higher depreciation and lower financial gains.

• Progress continued on major projects, including the VMOS/BEMOS oil export pipeline and Argentina LNG.

Financial highlights

• Q2 revenue was $4,641M (+1% q/q, -6% y/y), with record seasonal sales in natural gas and fuels.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $1,124M, down 10% sequentially and 7% year-over-year, mainly due to Brent price contraction and mature field exits.

• Net profit for Q2 was $58M, a turnaround from a $10M loss in the previous quarter, but down 96% y/y.

• Q2 investments totaled $1,160M, with 71% allocated to unconventional assets.

• Negative free cash flow of $365M in Q2, mainly due to mature field impacts and working capital needs.

• Net debt rose to $8,833M, with a net leverage ratio of 1.9x.

Outlook and guidance

• Shale oil production expected to reach 190,000 barrels per day by year-end and 250,000 barrels per day by end of 2026.

• No change to $5.0–$5.2 billion CAPEX guidance, even with Brent at $72 per barrel.

• Net leverage ratio anticipated to normalize to 1.8x by year-end as EBITDA increases and divestments proceed.

• Final investment decision for Argentina LNG project expected in Q1 2026.

• Focus remains on unconventional development, especially Vaca Muerta, with 71% of CAPEX directed to shale.