YPF (YPF) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 delivered robust operational and financial results, with revenues of $4.95B, up 9% sequentially and 7% year-over-year, driven by strong local fuel demand, record refinery processing, and higher international prices and export volumes.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $1.6B (32% margin), up 24% sequentially and 28% year-over-year, supported by higher shale oil production, improved pricing, and lower lifting costs.

• Free cash flow was $871M, a $1.8B improvement year-over-year, supported by strong operations and $500M in M&A proceeds.

• Net leverage ratio improved to 1.57x from 1.9x in Q4 2025, reflecting accelerated deleveraging and a 10% decrease in net debt.

• Net income was $409M, reversing a loss of $649M in Q4 2025, due to strong operational performance and lower extraordinary tax charges.

Financial highlights

• Revenues: $4.95B (+9% QoQ, +7% YoY).

• Adjusted EBITDA: $1.6B (32% margin, +24% QoQ, +28% YoY).

• Free cash flow: $871M, up $1.8B YoY.

• Liquidity: $1.7B at March 2026, up $497M in the quarter.

• CapEx: ~$1B in Q1, 78–97% to unconventional assets; down 10% sequentially and 19% YoY.

• Gross profit increased 31% QoQ and 35% YoY to $1.76B.

• Operating income rose 50% QoQ and 357% YoY to $878M.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year CapEx guidance reaffirmed at $5.5B–$5.8B, with acceleration expected in coming quarters and 2H26.

• Shale oil production target: ~215,000 bpd for 2026, with a December exit rate of 250,000 bpd.

• VMOS pipeline project ~62% complete, with first oil export expected by early 2027 and full operations by 2H27.

• Continued improvement in net leverage expected as strong cash generation persists.